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With the exception of the Giants and Bills, teams have not played their first preseason games yet. Nevertheless, running backs already are going down. The losses of Kendall Hunter, Tyler Gaffney, Vick Ballard and David Wilson underscore the volatility of the position and the need to prepare and build depth on your fantasy roster. You can hope for health, if you believe in the power of positive thinking, but you also better be prepared for injuries, because you will almost assuredly have a few.
Last week we took a look at the quarterbacks and a week prior we broke down the receivers. You can link to those two articles below as well as our high-value targets piece from earlier this month.
Today we’ll get into the top 50 running backs and how they relate to each other in terms of value to give you a lay of the landscape. If you are looking for a deeper take on a particular player, go to Rotobahn’s Top 400.
I’ll also be posting my “32 Backfields” article in about 10 days, where I will break down the ground games of all 32 NFL teams. Keep checking WEEI.com and Rotobahn for daily content and tune in this Sunday at 7:30 a.m. on 93.7 FM to hear the first broadcast of WEEI’s Fantasy Football Hour with myself and Jim Hackett! If you’ve never heard us before, check us out Wednesday when this week’s podcast goes up. Jim and I will breakdown this article in depth and cover some other timely fantasy topics. I’ll be back in this space next week with an in-depth look at the tight ends.
Tier 1 (1-5)
LeSean McCoy, Eagles
Adrian Peterson, Vikings
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
Eddie Lacy, Packers
Matt Forte, Bears
It’s almost impossible to go wrong here. These are the elite options and we project all of them to play in very good offenses with the exception of Charles, who will be running behind a retooled line for a team with a very shaky passing attack. We still expect his talent to win the day, but Charles will have to earn his numbers in 2014. These should be the first five players off the board in all drafts regardless of scoring format. If you have a shot to draft any of them in the six-hole or later, you should jump at the chance.
Tier 2 (6-9)
DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
Montee Ball, Broncos
Le’Veon Bell, Steelers
All four of these backs have two things going for them: talent and the support of a strong offense. They also are multidimensional players who get involved in the passing game. They all are projected as their team’s primary goal-line weapon. It’s also a young tier, with Lynch being the elder statesman at 28 years old. Lynch and Murray are more proven, as is Bell to some extent. Ball, while not being proven, has no legitimate competition on his roster and plays in an insanely high-octane offense. While some are smelling risk with Ball, just remember that you are buying the Broncos offense and goal-line opportunities and not Montee Ball in a vacuum. The one concern with Ball is his recent appendectomy. It’s something to watch, but he projects to be 100 percent for Week 1 at this point. Expect this entire tier to be off the board about halfway through Round 2 of 12-team drafts.
Tier 3 (10-15)
Arian Foster, Texans
C.J. Spiller, Bills
Andre Ellington, Cardinals
Giovanni Bernard, Bengals
Zac Stacy, Rams
Doug Martin, Buccaneers
This is where things get interesting. This tier is tightly packed, and you should trust your gut. Personally, I’m avoiding Foster due to his declining skills and injury potential, but his upside keeps him at the top of this tier. Ellington is unproven in terms of taking the pounding, but he’s running unopposed as the starter, and that’s a big factor. The rest of the tier has huge upside, but it gets complicated by usage or lack thereof. Can Martin, Stacy and Spiller get the touches? I think they will, but it would be silly to project high volume with any confidence. This entire tier has Round 1 upside, and that’s what makes these players so tempting in the second round. With the exception of Foster, whose ADP currently is 14, this tier gets drafted toward the end of Round 2 and throughout Round 3 of 12-team drafts. If you get any of them in the fourth, you are doing very well.
Tier 4 (16-20)
Alfred Morris, Washington
Ryan Mathews, Chargers
Trent Richardson, Colts
Toby Gerhart, Jaguars
Chris Johnson, Jets
Each back in this tier has legit upside and each has a red flag. For Johnson, Morris and Mathews, the red flag is competition for touches. Gerhart must prove that he’s durable. While we do not doubt his ability, we do wonder if he will hold up to the volume he projects to receive. Richardson needs to prove that his 2013 struggles were a product of being moved in-season. If he does that, he has the most upside of this group. He’s a play-to-win pick for the risk-takers. Mathews and Morris get pegged down a rung in PPR formats. Morris and Gerhart usually are off the board by the end of the third round, but the rest of the tier will go in the fourth round or later in 12-team leagues.
Tier 5 (21-26)
Ray Rice, Ravens
Reggie Bush, Lions
Bishop Sankey, Titans
Frank Gore, 49ers
Joique Bell, Lions
Lamar Miller, Dolphins
Welcome to the last semi-predictable tier. All of these backs have solid RB2 potential but also have worrisome floors. Bush needs to stay healthy, or what’s left of his role could shrink. Rice needs to hope Bernard Pierce doesn’t steal too much of his job as he misses Week 1 and 2 while serving his suspension. Gore will need to run well or risk losing job share to highly impressive rookie Carlos Hyde. Miller is the riser of the group, and Rotobahn readers know how much we like his talent. Miller could have broken out last year if not for the inept play-calling of Mike Sherman, whose odd fascination with Daniel Thomas may have cost him his job. New OC Bill Lazor projects as an improvement in Miami. I like the potential of both Bell and Sankey and they could both move up a bit with strong preseasons. The key for Sankey is winning the starting job outright. For Bell, it’s more complex as the Lions use and throw to their backs a ton, so there’s enough touches to support multiple fantasy options. Bush is a huge risk in 12-team drafts at his current ADP of 33, but overall you can get nice value with this group in Rounds 5 or 6 and sometimes even later.
Tier 6 (27-32)
Shane Vereen, Patriots
Ben Tate, Browns
Terrance West, Browns
Rashad Jennings, Giants
Stevan Ridley, Patriots
Khiry Robinson, Saints
This is an odd tier. There are six backs, but they only represent four teams. The potential value of all these backs underscores the upside at the position throughout the first eight or so rounds. This is a great place to look for an upside back if you have a mediocre RB2, but there are no sure things here for one reason or another. Vereen has never stayed healthy and is part of a committee, yet he’s also flashed huge potential as a flexible hybrid weapon for Tom Brady. Tate and West play in the same type of backfield as do Vereen and Ridley. I expect Cleveland to run the ball a ton — probably more than 50 percent of the time, which is a big switch from last year. The top two backs in Cleveland should have legit fantasy value. Robinson also is part of a projected committee, but he has upside if he can land the biggest share, which we expect him to do over the 16-game fantasy season. Lastly, you have Ridley, who has a big ceiling that could make him an RB1 in some scenarios. Still, with Ridley, the risks are obvious, and we’re concerned about rookie James White, who is a very good all-around back. This tier could change a lot in the coming weeks if roles become more defined, with the starters moving up into Tier 5. Jennings currently is overvalued in our view with an ADP of 49 in 12-team drafts. Robinson is a potential steal at 105.
Tier 7 (33-40)
Carlos Hyde, 49ers
Devonta Freeman, Falcons
Christine Michael, Seahawks
Steven Jackson, Falcons
Jeremy Hill, Bengals
Knile Davis, Chiefs
Bernard Pierce, Ravens
Maurice Jones-Drew, Raiders
Tier 7 is for the prognosticators and home run hitters. You have some high-end talent here, but you also have a lot of role uncertainty. Hyde and Freeman both play behind declining stars and potentially could outplay them from the get-go. Michael and Davis also play behind stars, but in their cases the stars still are in top form. That decreases their stand-alone value but makes them even more important as handcuff options (insurance policies.) Hill’s impact potentially is big, and he’s playing on a team that could be relatively run-heavy. The Bengals offense could provide the big back plenty of scoring chances, and we expect him to be the primary goal-line back over Giovani Bernard. Pierce has some special appeal as a guy who can start for you early while Ray Rice is suspended. Pierce is a good enough fit for new OC Gary Kubiak‘s offense that he could carve out a sizable role even after Rice’s return. Lastly we have Jones-Drew, who is not the same back he was before he suffered a Lisfranc injury in 2012. He should be part of a committee in Oakland, and we are not at all enamored with that offense. Jackson, who already is down with a hamstring injury but projected to make it back for Week 1, and Jones-Drew might be the best guys to target in this tier if you need immediate production. Aging backs are not where I want to put my mid-round money if I can help it.
Tier 8 (41-45)
Andre Williams, Giants
Fred Jackson, Bills
Chris Ivory, Jets
Ahmad Bradshaw, Colts
Mark Ingram, Saints
The riser in the group is Williams, who took a step forward with the career-ending injury to David Wilson and then another when he looked so good in the Hall of Fame Game. Williams is a back who Boston obviously knows well, and he was fortunate to land with the Giants, who like power backs. The thing I like most about Williams’ 2014 prospects are the injury history of the remaining backs on the roster. His young legs could end up getting a lot of action if things break right. Jackson is in a deep committee backfield, and he should produce less than he did in 2013 if C.J. Spiller can stay healthy. Ivory is the Jets’ version of Williams, but we expect his value to be a bit capped by Chris Johnson and Ivory’s own propensity for injury. Ingram and Bradshaw will each have value if they can stay healthy, but health has eluded both in recent years.
Tier 9 (46-50)
Tre Mason, Rams
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
Danny Woodhead, Chargers
Pierre Thomas, Saints
Darren Sproles, Eagles
While there are some recognizable names in this tier, we see three fading talents in Sproles, Williams and Thomas. They all have some upside if things break right, but we see smaller roles for Sproles and Thomas, while Williams is playing behind a poor line. Woodhead has limited appeal in standard formats, though he moves up a few tiers in PPR formats. Mason is the most interesting of the group, and we think he ultimately can force a committee backfield in St. Louis that will feature both he and Zac Stacy. He’s a very smart handcuff option for Stacy owners, who currently are using an early third-rounder on the Rams starter.
There are a lot of young backs in the top 50. If you are looking for more in-depth info on the rookies or second year backs, dig into our scouting reports at The Rotobahn. I’ve linked a few of the keys ones below.